Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson warned that the United States may be facing a serious fuel-supply vulnerability as tensions in West Asia continue to disrupt energy flows and strain global crude logistics.
Speaking in a July 3 interview with Dialogue Works host Nima, Johnson argued that the public discussion around oil supplies is missing the most important point: the issue is not simply how much crude exists on paper, but whether the United States has enough of the right kind of crude available for the refineries that produce diesel and aviation fuel.
Johnson said the United States has been drawing heavily from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to compensate for disrupted Persian Gulf flows, particularly the sour crude used by many refiners to produce distillates. He claimed the country is now nearing the end of that usable cushion.
“They’re pulling out 1.4 million barrels a day of this sour crude that is high in sulfur content that’s used to make diesel and aviation fuel,” Johnson said. “They had a 120-day supply. Well, just do the math. From that point in March until now, they basically have eight days left.”
Official data confirms the broader reserve has been falling sharply. Reuters reported that U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks dropped by 5.5 million barrels to 325.7 million barrels, the lowest level since May 1983, as part of a larger emergency release intended to offset global supply shortages and ease fuel prices.
Johnson’s warning, however, is narrower than the headline reserve number. His argument is that the most relevant constraint may be the availability of high-sulfur sour crude, not the total amount of crude remaining in storage. The U.S. produces large volumes of light sweet crude, but many Gulf Coast refineries have historically relied on heavier or more sour grades to optimize diesel, jet fuel, and other refined products.
That mismatch, Johnson argued, creates a dangerous lag. Even if additional barrels are sourced from abroad, crude that leaves the Persian Gulf today may take weeks to reach U.S. refineries. He said a fully loaded fleet of large tankers would still require roughly six weeks to reach the United States, meaning any shortage cannot be solved instantly.
“The United States is facing a real problem,” Johnson said. “It’s not going to have enough of the high-sulfur oil it needs to create diesel and aviation fuel.”
He added that alternative suppliers such as Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela cannot simply replace Persian Gulf barrels overnight. Production limits, infrastructure constraints, refinery compatibility, and shipping time all complicate any rapid substitution.
The fuel issue also carries military implications. Johnson argued that if Washington attempted to restart major combat operations in the region, aviation fuel could become a limiting factor. In that scenario, he warned, military demand may compete directly with civilian aviation, forcing difficult choices across the transportation system.
“If the United States decides to try to renew combat operations, it will have to take aviation fuel from civilian airliners,” Johnson said. “Civil aviation will be in a serious state of contraction.”
The discussion also touched on the Strait of Hormuz, where Johnson said ship traffic appeared sharply reduced and where he challenged claims that U.S. naval escorts were actively moving vessels through the waterway. He said he saw little evidence of a major U.S. naval presence in the strait and described the current escort claims as relying more on surveillance aircraft than combat-capable naval protection.
Johnson also linked the energy crisis to broader military and industrial limits. He argued that U.S. crisis-action teams, which are normally activated ahead of major military operations, are no longer staffed around the clock. In his view, that suggests Washington is not currently positioned for another large-scale attack on Iran.
He further warned that U.S. military production is constrained by dependence on Chinese rare-earth processing. Johnson argued that advanced weapons systems such as Tomahawk missiles, JASSMs, and F-35 components depend on processed rare-earth inputs that the United States cannot easily replace domestically.
The interview also turned to missile defense. Johnson cited analysis from MIT professor Ted Postol, who has argued that Patriot and THAAD systems performed poorly against maneuvering ballistic missiles. Johnson said these claims raise questions about whether Western air-defense systems can reliably intercept advanced Iranian missiles with maneuverable warheads.
The overall warning was stark: Johnson believes the United States is facing simultaneous pressure across energy supply, military logistics, refinery compatibility, and weapons production.
While the total Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not exhausted, Johnson argued that the more important question is whether the United States has enough usable sour crude and refined-fuel capacity to sustain both civilian demand and military operations if the West Asia crisis deepens.
His conclusion was that the U.S. may be closer to a diesel and aviation-fuel crunch than official headlines suggest.
If Johnson’s assessment is correct, the next phase of the crisis may not begin with a battlefield escalation.
It may begin at the refinery gate.
