Military analyst Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis called Iran's declaration that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial shipping "way premature," despite the April 17, 2026 announcement that was contingent on the Lebanon ceasefire holding. President Donald Trump immediately said the U.S. would maintain its naval blockade on Iran.
Davis argued that shipping remains paralyzed despite Iran's conditions for Strait access, which include allowing only commercial ships, prohibiting military vessels, banning ships or cargo linked to belligerent states, and requiring coordination with Iranian forces. "Nobody none of these tankers, none of these companies, none of these countries are going to just start flying tankers through the Gulf right now," Davis said.
Oil markets reacted dramatically to the announcements, with prices dropping nearly 12% immediately. "The oil market is thrilled. It dropped 12% almost immediately upon these two announcements," Davis claimed.
The current ceasefire expires at midnight on Tuesday, April 21, 2026, giving only a few days for potential diplomatic resolution. Both Iran and the U.S. continue military preparations despite ongoing talks, with additional forces and weapons systems being deployed to the region.
President Trump has been clear about his intentions when the ceasefire ends. Davis said Trump was specifically asked if he would resume hostilities after the ceasefire period and "without hesitation he said yes definitely."
Military options remain severely limited, according to Davis, who contended a ground invasion of Iran is militarily impossible due to challenging terrain and the need for 400,000-500,000 troops. "There is no rational ground option at all for the United States here," Davis argued.
The economic consequences are already severe, with five of six GCC countries having suspended or greatly reduced oil production due to lack of storage capacity. Davis claimed economic damage is already irreversible, saying a recession is "baked in" because of disruptions to energy and fertilizer markets.
President Trump faces three difficult options, according to Davis: accepting a negotiated settlement on Iranian terms, escalating military action, or maintaining a prolonged economic blockade. Davis argued that regardless of the chosen path, "there is no good victory narrative that can come out no matter what words come out of President Trump's mouth."
