Iran has successfully shipped 9 million barrels of crude oil since the U.S. naval blockade began on April 13, according to analyst Larry Johnson. More than 20 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours, while over 800 remain stopped in the Persian Gulf under Iranian control.
Johnson, a returning guest, argued that China has openly refused to comply with the blockade and continues to receive its planned Iranian oil shipments. "There's no strategy," Johnson said of the U.S. approach to isolating Iran economically.
He contended the global economy is beginning to experience a severe 20% reduction in oil supply that will cause widespread shortages and dramatic price increases. "The world has not yet experienced the pain of losing 20% of the supply of oil," he said.
Johnson argued the U.S. naval blockade is ineffective because Iran possesses multiple advanced weapons systems that prevent American ships from operating near its coastline. He said these systems include cruise missiles, drones, and submarines that have deterred close-range enforcement.
According to Johnson, the U.S. aircraft carrier George HW Bush chose to sail around Africa rather than through the Red Sea to avoid potential Iranian attacks, calling this a significant strategic deviation that underscores the perceived threat.
The Trump administration is planning major attacks on Iranian nuclear sites and power plants if the current ceasefire ends on April 20, Johnson claimed. "This is just one more act of desperation by the Trump administration," he said.
Economic consequences of the blockade are already appearing, with fertilizer prices tripling, diesel costs doubling, and hay prices for cattle ranchers increasing significantly, according to Johnson.
Iran controls 20% of global oil supply, 25% of liquid natural gas, and 35% of world fertilizer production through its dominance of the Strait of Hormuz, Johnson argued.
China is 85% energy self-sufficient and Iranian oil comprises only 10-15% of its total imports, making Beijing far less vulnerable to the blockade's effects than initially anticipated, according to Johnson's assessment.
Johnson claimed that Tehran has effectively established maritime authority in the region. He said that "Iran will continue to control who gets in, who gets out of the Strait of Hormuz." Johnson concluded that Iran is now the adult in the strategic confrontation.
