Professor Robert Pape said that President Donald Trump's naval blockade against Iran constitutes "an act of war" that is pushing the conflict toward dangerous escalation rather than peace. Speaking about the thousands of additional U.S. troops heading to the Middle East, Pape argued the administration's actions serve as cover for inevitable escalation toward ground troop deployment.
"A naval blockade is not a political statement," Pape said. "It's an act of war."
The University of Chicago professor contended the U.S. blockade at the Strait of Hormuz has prompted Iran to threaten shutting down another choke point in the Red Sea, bringing the U.S. into direct confrontation with China, which receives much of the region's oil. According to Pape, Iran's development of significant power projection capability through drones and missiles has already forced U.S. carriers to sail around Africa rather than through the Red Sea.
Pape claimed Iran will not make concessions on nuclear enrichment or control of strategic waterways because doing so would make the country more vulnerable to attack. "We're asking Iran to take sucker deals that other states have taken in the past," he said.
The professor further argued that a permanent blockade would cause GDP declines of 20-30% for UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait within months and trigger global economic contraction after 60-90 days. He said U.S. actions are helping Iran build a coalition that includes nuclear-armed China, Pakistan, and Russia.
Pape contended that the current strategy creates powerful incentives for nuclear proliferation worldwide. "We are teaching the world it better get a bomb," he said.
