Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson said the United States is moving toward a major strategic retreat in the Middle East as the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding enters its most fragile phase.
Johnson argued that Washington’s recent military posture shows the United States is no longer prepared to sustain the same forward-deployed pressure campaign against Iran. He said the U.S. has pulled back aircraft, reduced visible strike preparations and moved away from escalation after Iranian retaliation exposed limits in American regional power.
Johnson pointed to Iranian strikes on U.S.-linked military targets in Bahrain and elsewhere as a turning point. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps said it targeted the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain after American strikes on Iranian sites. Johnson claimed the Bahrain strike damaged important U.S. strategic capabilities, though the extent of damage has not been independently confirmed.
The Fifth Fleet remains one of the central symbols of American power in the Gulf. Its headquarters in Bahrain oversees naval operations across the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea, Arabian Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean. Johnson argued that even if the fleet is not formally withdrawn, the United States is being forced to rethink how exposed its regional posture has become.
The broader dispute now centers on the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. Reuters reported that the interim agreement declares an immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, and commits Washington to ending its naval blockade on Iranian ports within 30 days. Iran, in turn, is to ensure safe commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days while both sides negotiate a final agreement.
Johnson said the agreement reflects Iran’s core demands: sanctions relief, access to frozen assets, recognition of Iran’s role in the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the U.S. blockade, and a ceasefire framework that includes Lebanon.
But Lebanon remains the most dangerous fault line.
Reuters reported that Israel has published a map showing an expanded military control zone in southern Lebanon, challenging the U.S.-Iran pact’s language on Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel must maintain a security strip in southern Lebanon and will not leave as long as Israel’s security needs require it.
That position directly collides with Hezbollah and Iran’s stated demands. Hezbollah has rejected Israeli security zones inside Lebanon, and its leader Naim Qassem said Israel must leave Lebanese territory.
Johnson argued that this is where the agreement is most likely to crack. He said Israel is unlikely to withdraw voluntarily, and that the deal will only hold if Washington is willing to use real leverage over Israel.
Vice President JD Vance has already signaled frustration with Israeli officials criticizing the U.S.-Iran deal. Reuters reported that Vance warned Israeli cabinet members against attacking Trump, saying the U.S. remains Israel’s strongest ally and that two-thirds of Israel’s defensive weapons were built by American hands and paid for by American taxpayers.
The dispute exposes a widening gap between Washington and Tel Aviv. The U.S.-Iran framework is designed to de-escalate the regional war, reopen Hormuz and move nuclear talks into a 60-day negotiation window. Israel, however, says it must retain freedom of action in Lebanon and will not withdraw while it sees Hezbollah as a threat.
Johnson said the result is a deal that may look historic on paper but remains vulnerable to collapse on the ground.
If Israel continues operations in Lebanon, and if Washington refuses to force an Israeli withdrawal, the U.S.-Iran agreement may become less a final settlement than a temporary pause before the next crisis.
